10/30/11

glen canyon

so,
after a bit of a breakdown in lincoln,
[and by that i mean a three touchdown beatdown]
msu took a bit of a nosedive in the bcs
they dropped six spots down to #17
wisconsin, on the other hand, has plummted 14 spots in two weeks [to #20],
thanks to two back–to–back close losses to msu and ohio state
nebraska, michigan, and penn state are all up in the bcs rankings
moving up four, three, and three spots respectively
iowa mindblowingly lost again to MINNESOTA [!]
[btdubs, the last time minnesota got back–to–back wins on ANYONE was  2008/9
when they beat purdue twice in a row
the last quality opponent they beat twice in a row was penn state in 2003/4]
northwestern finally got a big ten win,
illinois's on a three–game backslide
indiana remains winless in the big ten,
and the legends division is very much up for grabs
such is the state of big ten football in week 10

i realize this is gonna seem like a weird time to do this,
but i really don't give a shit
i wanted to wait until october was done before doing any sort of prediction
mostly because october is the month where you learn who teams really are,
and when you see what they're actually capable of
also because october is when everyone gets proved wrong
and i'd rather have something to base my claims on
so, let's get to it

first off, my big ten championship prediction:
michigan state v. penn state

and how do we get there?
through my division predicitons, of course

of all the teams in the legends division,
msu has the best shot of going 4–0 in november
michigan has to go to iowa and ohio state, and host nebraska
nebraska has to go to penn state and michigan, and host iowa
iowa has to host msu and michigan, and then go to nebraska
while msu goes to iowa and northwestern, and hosts minnesota and indiana
with the exception of iowa, those are all teams msu's beaten recently
and msu is extremely capable of handling them this time around as well
[iowa will be a challenge for msu, since iowa : msu :: msu : wisconsin
that is to say, msu hasn't won there since 1989, aka SINCE I WAS BORN]
plus, if msu goes 4–0 in november, they'll be 7–1 in big ten play, 4–1 in conference
only nebraska and michigan would be able to match that,
and msu holds the tiebreaker over michigan
so, i'm gonna go out on a limb here and say msu does finish the season undefeated
and that michigan beats nebraska in three weeks
thus, we have msu winning the division

the leaders side is a little bit more intriguing
penn state has the toughest closing schedule in the big ten,
[hosting nebraska, at ohio state, and at wisconsin]
but all three of those teams are beatable,
especially against a defense as good as penn state's
wisconsin's is a bit easier, closing at illinois then penn state
and ohio state closes at penn state then michigan
i'm not sold on ohio state at all,
they barely beat wisconsin, they've only won on the road against illinois,
and their home schedule otherwise has been a cakewalk [msu excepted]
wisconsin has an easier closing slate than penn state,
and they do get to host penn state at the end of the season,
but they've had real problems playing teams as good as them
way in the lead they're fine, but in a close game they've choked twice in a row
maybe that'll translate to finishing the season strong,
but i think it's more likely that they stumble once more
so, with all that in mind,
i expect to see penn state win out in november,
especially since their offense finally seems to be stepping up,
and their defense has been playing like the penn state of lore
which puts them in indy in december opposite msu

now, with both of the divisions decided come the championship prediciton
msu over penn state [no score; that's the one thing i don't predict]
that game would ultimately come down to who has the better offense
and that title absolutely belongs to msu
msu's offense has been much more productive than penn state's,
and it's proven that it can step up if the defense can't [see the wisconsin game]
whereas penn state's defense has been bailing out its offense
especially against iowa and illinois
this isn't to say that msu's offense or penn state's defense will fall by the wayside,
it's to say that msu's offense stands a greater chance of success
especially in the spot where experience matters most: at quarterback
mcgloin's had some impressive moments in the past few weeks,
but i'd much rather rely on a consistent and solid player like cousins
and so, when all is said and done,
i predict msu will raise whatever trophy the big ten makes for its first championship game

LET THE SCREAMING COMMENCE
[also, this is my official prediction,
so feel free to hold me to it]



in other news,
my costume this halloween has been a rip–roarin' success
i haven't gotten compliments like this since i was solid snake [see here and here]
if a good photo is taken of me as opie before the week is out,
i would be glad to share it with you fine folks
keep your fingers crossed



ADDENDUM
i came to an annoying revelation after i posted this
apparently i'm not the only one who has this same prediction
the espn bloggers think almost the exact same way i do,
along with a few other college sports media types
so, just to be clear, this one was all me
i'm not copying other people to seem cool or like i know what i'm talking about
[which, for the record, i do]
so consider it circumstantial and nothing more, hokay?

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